US government budget balance in 2026 — Above -8.5% of GDP
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $7.9k traded · market at 63%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | US government budget balance in 2026 — Above -8.5% of GDP | 0.600 | 0.660 | 63% | 2027-04-20 | $7.9k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- International Monetary Fund — https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- price move 11h ago +0.240
- price move 1d ago -0.105
- price move 1d ago -0.180