polyrag

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027

kalshi · 9 contracts · 7 deadlines · $339.7k traded · market at 12%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027 0.110 0.120 12% 2027-01-01 $215.6k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029 0.380 0.390 38% 2029-01-20 $51.0k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2028 0.330 0.350 34% 2028-01-01 $39.9k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Sep 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-09-01 $21.9k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026 0.050 0.060 5.5% 2026-12-01 $13.8k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027 0.170 0.190 18% 2027-03-01 $12.2k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Oct 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-10-01 $11.4k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Nov 1, 2026 0.010 0.020 1.5% 2026-11-01 $10.2k
kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027 0.100 0.110 10% 2027-02-01 $3.8k

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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