US real GDP growth in Q3 2026? — Above 1.0%
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $9.7k traded · market at 98%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | US real GDP growth in Q3 2026? — Above 1.0% | 0.970 | 0.990 | 98% | 2026-10-30 | $9.0k |
| kalshi | US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? — Above 1.0% | 0.740 | 0.820 | 78% | 2027-01-28 | $732 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis — https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product GDP, PCE — public API
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.