US unemployment rate at year-end 2028 — Above 9.5%
kalshi · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $70 traded · market at 7.5%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2028 — Above 9.5% | 0.070 | 0.080 | 7.5% | 2029-01-05 | $70 |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2028 — Above 5.5% | 0.540 | 0.640 | 59% | 2029-01-05 | — |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr rates and series — FRED public API
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.