US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 5.5%
kalshi · 8 contracts · 1 deadline · $81 traded · market at 59%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 5.5% | 0.540 | 0.640 | 59% | 2033-01-07 | $81 |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 3.5% | 0.760 | 0.860 | 81% | 2033-01-07 | — |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 4.5% | 0.650 | 0.750 | 70% | 2033-01-07 | — |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 5.0% | 0.590 | 0.690 | 64% | 2033-01-07 | — |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 6.5% | 0.430 | 0.530 | 48% | 2033-01-07 | — |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 7.5% | 0.320 | 0.420 | 37% | 2033-01-07 | — |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 8.5% | 0.210 | 0.310 | 26% | 2033-01-07 | — |
| kalshi | US unemployment rate at year-end 2032 — Above 9.5% | 0.100 | 0.200 | 15% | 2033-01-07 | — |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr rates and series — FRED public API
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.