When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi · 6 contracts · 5 deadlines · $361 traded · market at 40%
loading price history…
What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Jan 1, 2029 | 0.360 | 0.430 | 40% | 2029-01-01 | $350 |
| kalshi | When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Jul 1, 2028 | 0.280 | 0.360 | 32% | 2028-07-01 | $10 |
| kalshi | When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | 2.0% | 2026-10-01 | $6 |
| kalshi | When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.270 | 0.350 | 31% | 2028-01-01 | $0 |
| kalshi | When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.260 | 0.340 | 30% | 2027-07-01 | $0 |
| kalshi | When will a reconciliation bill become law? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.250 | 0.330 | 29% | 2027-01-01 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- Library of Congress — https://congress.gov