When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $57.1k traded · market at 12%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.110 | 0.120 | 12% | 2027-01-01 | $43.0k |
| kalshi | When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? — Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.360 | 0.400 | 38% | 2027-07-01 | $14.1k |
| kalshi | When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? — Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | 0.1% | 2026-09-01 | $496 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- person — https://kalshi.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
- official government records and registries — https://kalshi.com
- the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held — https://kalshi.com
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com
- the New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com/
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