polyrag

When will Serbia call its presidential election? — Before Dec 1, 2026

kalshi · 4 contracts · 3 deadlines · $2.0k traded · market at 86%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi When will Serbia call its presidential election? — Before Dec 1, 2026 0.830 0.890 86% 2026-12-01 $889
kalshi When will Serbia call its presidential election? — Before Nov 1, 2026 0.120 0.180 15% 2026-11-01 $664
kalshi When will Serbia call its presidential election? — Before Oct 15, 2026 0.040 0.050 4.5% 2026-10-15 $460
kalshi When will Serbia call its presidential election? — Before Oct 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-10-01 $56

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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