When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $630 traded · market at 26%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.220 | 0.300 | 26% | 2027-01-01 | $630 |
| kalshi | When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal? — Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.530 | 0.610 | 57% | 2027-07-01 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland — https://irish-presidency.consilium.europa.eu/en/news/
- European Council — https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/