When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 5 contracts · 3 deadlines · $1.3k traded · market at 24%
loading price history…
What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.200 | 0.290 | 24% | 2027-01-01 | $1.0k |
| kalshi | When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — Before Dec 1, 2026 | 0.030 | 0.100 | 6.5% | 2026-12-01 | $280 |
| kalshi | When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | 1.0% | 2026-09-01 | $131 |
| kalshi | When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | 1.0% | 2026-10-01 | $36 |
| kalshi | When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — Before Nov 1, 2026 | — | 0.030 | 1.0% | 2026-11-01 | $14 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Library of Congress — https://www.congress.gov/