polyrag

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called? — Before Jul 1, 2027

kalshi · 5 contracts · 5 deadlines · $6.8k traded · market at 82%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called? — Before Jul 1, 2027 0.790 0.850 82% 2027-07-01 $4.1k
kalshi When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called? — Before Apr 1, 2027 0.520 0.580 55% 2027-04-01 $2.7k
kalshi When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called? — Before Nov 1, 2026 0.070 0.150 11% 2026-11-01 $1
kalshi When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called? — Before Jan 1, 2027 0.340 0.430 38% 2027-01-01 —
kalshi When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called? — Before Jan 1, 2028 0.840 0.930 88% 2028-01-01 —

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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