polyrag

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027

kalshi · 19 contracts · 17 deadlines · $1.2M traded · market at 38%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027 0.370 0.400 38% 2027-07-01 $667.6k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2027 0.062 0.067 6.5% 2027-01-01 $223.6k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Apr 1, 2027 0.240 0.250 24% 2027-04-01 $191.5k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2026 0.030 0.040 3.5% 2026-12-01 $53.7k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2026 0.010 0.020 1.5% 2026-11-01 $48.4k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Sep 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-09-01 $40.9k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2028 0.530 0.550 54% 2028-01-01 $35.1k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-10-06 $33.4k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2029 0.660 0.680 67% 2029-01-01 $26.7k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2028 0.630 0.640 64% 2028-07-01 $21.1k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2027 0.450 0.470 46% 2027-11-02 $4.5k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2027 0.490 0.500 50% 2027-12-07 $1.9k
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Aug 1, 2027 0.350 0.380 36% 2027-08-03 $720
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2027 0.420 0.440 43% 2027-10-05 $382
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Sep 1, 2027 0.400 0.410 40% 2027-09-07 $189
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Feb 1, 2027 0.080 0.110 9.5% 2027-02-02 $149
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Mar 1, 2027 0.130 0.170 15% 2027-03-02 $86
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jun 1, 2027 0.330 0.340 34% 2027-06-08 $86
kalshi When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before May 1, 2027 0.270 0.300 28% 2027-05-04 $82

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

Cross-venue

buyselledgenotionalresolution
poly 0.100 kals 0.180 6.97c $1.81 diverges/low [threshold]: The two rules use different thresholds: Poly…
poly 0.080 kals 0.120 3.26c $17.19 diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different cutoff dates (Dec…
poly 0.100 kals 0.190 7.92c $8.00 diverges/low [threshold]: The two rules use different thresholds: Poly…
poly 0.080 kals 0.130 4.21c $14.61 diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different cutoff dates (Dec…
poly 0.100 kals 0.190 7.92c $8.00 diverges/low [threshold]: The two rules use different thresholds: Poly…

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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