When will Wales call a snap election? — Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.8k traded · market at 15%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | When will Wales call a snap election? — Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.120 | 0.180 | 15% | 2028-01-01 | $1.7k |
| kalshi | When will Wales call a snap election? — Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.010 | 0.040 | 2.5% | 2027-07-01 | $104 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
- the New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- South China Morning Post — https://www.scmp.com
- ABC News Australia — https://kalshi.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- Axios — https://www.axios.com
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- The Guardian — https://www.theguardian.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- CBC (Canada) — https://www.cbc.ca/
- BBC News — https://www.bbc.com/news
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/