Where will it rain on Oct 12, 2026? — Las Vegas
kalshi · 4 contracts · 4 deadlines · $14.9k traded · market at 4.5%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Where will it rain on Oct 12, 2026? — Las Vegas | 0.040 | 0.050 | 4.5% | 2026-10-13 | $10.1k |
| kalshi | Where will it rain on Oct 11, 2026? — Las Vegas | 0.980 | 0.990 | 98% | 2026-10-12 | $4.4k |
| kalshi | Where will it rain on Oct 13, 2026? — Las Vegas | 0.010 | 0.020 | 1.5% | 2026-10-14 | $295 |
| kalshi | Where will it rain on Oct 14, 2026? — Las Vegas | 0.010 | 0.020 | 1.5% | 2026-10-15 | $15 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- The Weather Company — https://weather.com/kalshi
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