polyrag

Where will it rain on Oct 11, 2026? — Los Angeles

kalshi · 5 contracts · 5 deadlines · $219.3k traded · market at 92%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Where will it rain on Oct 11, 2026? — Los Angeles 0.890 0.950 92% 2026-10-12 $207.1k
kalshi Where will it rain on Oct 12, 2026? — Los Angeles 0.860 0.890 88% 2026-10-13 $7.1k
kalshi Where will it rain on Oct 10, 2026? — Los Angeles 0.010 0.020 1.5% 2026-10-11 $5.0k
kalshi Where will it rain on Oct 13, 2026? — Los Angeles 0.010 0.020 1.5% 2026-10-14 $115
kalshi Where will it rain on Oct 14, 2026? — Los Angeles 0.010 0.020 1.5% 2026-10-15 $12

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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