polyrag

Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — Paul Kagame

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $16 traded · market at 3.4%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — Paul Kagame 0.008 0.059 3.4% 2035-01-01 $16

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.