polyrag

Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election? — Democratic party

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $80 traded · market at 49%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

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kalshi Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election? — Democratic party 0.460 0.520 49% 2033-11-02 $80

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.