polyrag

Who will be the next new Speaker of the House? — Jim Jordan

kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $385 traded · market at 9.6%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Who will be the next new Speaker of the House? — Jim Jordan 0.071 0.110 9.0% 2031-01-01 $352
kalshi 120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House? — Jim Jordan — 0.020 2.0% 2028-01-03 $33

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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