Who will be the next new Speaker of the House? — Steve Scalise
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $32 traded · market at 2.4%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House? — Steve Scalise | — | 0.010 | 1.0% | 2028-01-03 | $17 |
| kalshi | Who will be the next new Speaker of the House? — Steve Scalise | 0.010 | 0.037 | 2.4% | 2031-01-01 | $15 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- relevant county clerk or board of elections — https://kalshi.com/
- Attorney General of the United States — https://www.justice.gov/ag
- relevant city/municipal clerk — https://kalshi.com/
- in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer — https://kalshi.com/
- the Federal Election Commission — https://www.fec.gov
- state board of elections or canvassing board — https://kalshi.com/
- The Source Agencies are — https://kalshi.com/