polyrag

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Mike Pompeo

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $18 traded · market at 3.1%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Mike Pompeo 0.001 0.062 3.1% 2029-01-20 $18

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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