polyrag

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? — Bill Hagerty

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $21 traded · market at 6.9%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? — Bill Hagerty 0.039 0.099 6.9% 2029-01-20 $21

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.