Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $6.0k traded · market at 15%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | 0.140 | 0.160 | 15% | 2028-12-31 expected | $5.7k |
| kalshi | Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election? — Ell | 0.200 | 0.280 | 24% | 2028-12-22 | $279 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- parliament or legislature of <country> — https://www.parliament.go.ke/
- official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- office of the head of state of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- major national news outlets of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- Financial Times — https://ft.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- official government websites of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- The Guardian — https://www.theguardian.com
- BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.