Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Pete Hegseth
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $14.8k traded · market at 19%
loading price history…
What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Pete Hegseth | 0.200 | 0.210 | 20% | 2029-01-20 | $13.8k |
| polymarket | Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.077 | 0.133 | 10% | 2027-01-01 expected | $1.0k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.069 | kals 0.140 | 6.26c | $0.19 | diverges/high [office]: The two markets define the Cabinet differently… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- volume spike 2d ago