Who will Trump pardon? — Bob Menendez
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.6k traded · market at 26%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Bob Menendez | 0.230 | 0.280 | 26% | 2029-01-21 | $921 |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Bob Menendez | 0.013 | 0.090 | 5.1% | 2027-01-01 | $363 |
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.061 | 5.8% | 2027-01-01 expected | $295 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.079 | kals 0.230 | 13.86c | $9.08 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.