Who will Trump pardon? — Edward Snowden
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $8.4k traded · market at 22%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Edward Snowden | 0.320 | 0.390 | 36% | 2029-01-21 | $4.9k |
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027? | 0.040 | 0.046 | 4.3% | 2027-01-01 expected | $3.2k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Edward Snowden | 0.025 | 0.050 | 3.8% | 2027-01-01 | $326 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.047 | kals 0.260 | 19.95c | $25.95 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- price move 1h ago +0.125
- price move 1d ago -0.070