Who will Trump pardon? — Eric Adams
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $2.8k traded · market at 36%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Eric Adams | 0.340 | 0.380 | 36% | 2029-01-21 | $1.3k |
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027? | 0.080 | 0.090 | 8.5% | 2027-01-01 expected | $1.1k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Eric Adams | 0.019 | 0.097 | 5.8% | 2027-01-01 | $365 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.064 | poly 0.080 | 1.18c | $1.18 | diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different start dates for t… |
| kals 0.064 | poly 0.080 | 1.18c | $1.18 | diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different start dates for t… |
| kals 0.064 | poly 0.080 | 1.18c | $0.24 | diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different start dates for t… |
| kals 0.064 | poly 0.080 | 1.18c | $1.18 | diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different start dates for t… |
| kals 0.064 | poly 0.080 | 1.18c | $1.18 | diverges/high [timing]: The two rules have different start dates for t… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.