Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Bill Hwang
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $468 traded · market at 5.5%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Bill Hwang | 0.031 | 0.080 | 5.5% | 2027-01-01 | $445 |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Bill Hwang | 0.370 | 0.440 | 40% | 2029-01-21 | $23 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.