polyrag

Who will Trump pardon? — Sebastian Telfair

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $22 traded · market at 9.7%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Who will Trump pardon? — Sebastian Telfair 0.054 0.140 9.7% 2029-01-21 $22

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.