Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $366 traded · market at 24%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030? | 0.220 | 0.250 | 24% | 2030-01-01 | $366 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- official proponent filings — https://kalshi.com/
- CalMatters — https://calmatters.org
- Politico California — https://www.politico.com/states/california
- Court decisions from California Supreme Court or Federal Courts with jurisdiction — https://www.courts.ca.gov/opinions.htm
- the California Secretary of State — https://www.sos.ca.gov
- Sacramento Bee — https://www.sacbee.com
- San Francisco Chronicle — https://www.sfchronicle.com
- Official California Legislative Information website — https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/
- Los Angeles Times — https://www.latimes.com
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com