polyrag

Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027?

kalshi polymarket · 5 contracts · 4 deadlines · $3.8k traded · market at 10%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
polymarket Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026? 0.100 0.110 10% 2027-01-01 expected $2.6k
kalshi When will the UK's social media ban take effect? — Before Apr 1, 2027 0.540 0.600 57% 2027-04-01 $888
kalshi When will the UK's social media ban take effect? — Before Aug 1, 2027 0.720 0.780 75% 2027-08-01 $307
kalshi When will the UK's social media ban take effect? — Before Jan 1, 2027 0.090 0.130 11% 2027-01-01 $59
polymarket Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027? 0.220 0.700 46% 2027-07-01 expected $16

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

Cross-venue

buyselledgenotionalresolution
poly 0.110 kals 0.710 58.56c $34.97 implausible spread — near-certain mis-match
poly 0.110 kals 0.530 40.26c $24.04 implausible spread — near-certain mis-match

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.