Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $27.6k traded · market at 11%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? | 0.060 | 0.160 | 11% | 2026-12-31 expected | $24.6k |
| kalshi | Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? — Before 2027 | 0.051 | 0.100 | 7.5% | 2027-01-01 | $2.9k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com/
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- PACER — https://pacer.uscourts.gov/
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- Axios — https://www.axios.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Politico — https://www.politico.com/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
Recent activity
- volume spike 2d ago