Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026? — Yes
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $3.3k traded · market at 38%
loading price history…
What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026? — | 0.370 | 0.390 | 38% | 2027-11-03 | $3.3k |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections — https://kalshi.com/
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission — https://kalshi.com/
- constitutional court — https://kalshi.com/