Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $17.6k traded · market at 0.1%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.1% | 2026-11-30 expected | $17.6k |
| kalshi | Bulgarian presidential election winner? — Atanas Atanasov | 0.001 | 0.030 | 1.6% | 2027-11-15 | $0 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections — https://kalshi.com/
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission — https://kalshi.com/
- constitutional court — https://kalshi.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.