Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Benny Gantz
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $44 traded · market at 0.6%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel? — Benny Gantz | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.6% | 2045-01-01 | $22 |
| kalshi | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Benny Gantz | — | 0.010 | 1.0% | 2027-10-27 | $22 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.003 | kals 0.005 | 0.17c | $0.40 | diverges/high [different_event]: The two markets define 'next Prime Mi… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.