Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $3.1k traded · market at 16%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election? | 0.150 | 0.170 | 16% | 2027-06-30 expected | $3.1k |
| kalshi | Hsinchu County magistrate election winner? — Cheng Chao-fang | 0.570 | 0.650 | 61% | 2027-11-28 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Central Election Commission of Taiwan — https://web.cec.gov.tw/central?Menu_id=1392
Recent activity
- price move 1d ago +0.065