Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? — Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · 4 contracts · 4 deadlines · $1.6k traded · market at 28%
loading price history…
What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? — Before A | 0.240 | 0.310 | 28% | 2027-04-01 | $817 |
| kalshi | Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? — Before J | 0.110 | 0.150 | 13% | 2027-01-01 | $750 |
| kalshi | Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? — Before J | 0.380 | 0.450 | 42% | 2027-07-01 | — |
| kalshi | Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? — Before J | 0.540 | 0.600 | 57% | 2028-01-01 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- the Federal Register — https://www.federalregister.gov/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
- the White House — https://www.whitehouse.gov/
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- social media of the White House and the President of the United States — https://kalshi.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Axios — https://www.axios.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- government agency — https://kalshi.com/
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com