Will Danny O'Brien be the next Premier of Victoria?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.5k traded · market at 0.2%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Danny O'Brien be the next Premier of Victoria? | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.2% | 2026-11-28 expected | $1.4k |
| kalshi | Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election? — Danny O'Brien | 0.010 | 0.070 | 4.0% | 2027-01-01 | $77 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- CBS News — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- the New York Times — https://nytimes.com
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- ABC News — https://abcnews.go.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com
- Axios — https://www.axios.com
- NBC News — https://nbcnews.tv
- Associated Press — https://apnews.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news