Will Dean Young win the next Clarence mayoral election?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $79 traded · market at 3.1%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Dean Young win the next Clarence mayoral election? | 0.003 | 0.059 | 3.1% | 2026-10-28 expected | $79 |
| kalshi | Clarence mayoral election winner? — Dean Young | 0.010 | 0.110 | 6.0% | 2027-10-27 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Tasmanian Electoral Commission — https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/local-government/elections-2026/i