polyrag

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? — Before 2027

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $1.2k traded · market at 2.1%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? — Before 2027 0.010 0.033 2.1% 2027-01-01 $1.2k

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.