Will Heidi Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $2.3k traded · market at 9.4%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Heidi Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | 0.092 | 0.097 | 9.4% | 2027-12-31 expected | $2.2k |
| kalshi | Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — Heidi Alexander | — | 0.050 | 5.0% | 2028-01-01 | $79 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.070 | poly 0.020 | -5.46c | $-2.18 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.070 | poly 0.019 | -5.56c | $-2.22 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.080 | poly 0.020 | -6.52c | $-0.33 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.070 | poly 0.017 | -5.76c | $-3.40 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.070 | poly 0.020 | -5.46c | $-5.46 | edge disappears against the real book |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk
- The Prime Minister's Office — https://gov.uk
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.