Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum? — Yes
kalshi · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $1.7k traded · market at 21%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum? — Yes | 0.190 | 0.230 | 21% | 2030-01-01 | $1.3k |
| kalshi | Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? — Yes | 0.100 | 0.160 | 13% | 2030-01-01 | $447 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Department of the Taoiseach — https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-the-taoiseach/
- Houses of the Oireachtas — https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/
- Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage — https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-housing-local-government