Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Israel Katz
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $577 traded · market at 4.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel? — Israel Katz | 0.020 | 0.060 | 4.0% | 2045-01-01 | $567 |
| kalshi | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Israel Katz | — | 0.010 | 1.0% | 2027-10-27 | $10 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.002 | kals 0.020 | 1.66c | $10.92 | diverges/medium [office]: Polymarket excludes interim/caretaker PMs, w… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.