Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned? — Before Mar 1, 2027
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $4.4k traded · market at 72%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned? — Before Mar 1, 2027 | 0.710 | 0.750 | 73% | 2027-03-01 | $4.3k |
| kalshi | Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned? — Before Jan 10, 2027 | 0.560 | 0.650 | 60% | 2027-01-10 | $129 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- the National Congress of Brazil — https://www.congressonacional.leg.br/
- the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil — https://www.gov.br/planalto/pt-br
- the Diário Oficial da União — https://www.in.gov.br/
Recent activity
- price move 1d ago -0.090
- price move 1d ago -0.055
- price move 1d ago +0.090