2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — J.D. Vance
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 3 deadlines · $943.8k traded · market at 20%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — J.D. Vance | 0.200 | 0.210 | 20% | 2029-11-07 | $930.2k |
| kalshi | Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election? — J.D. Vance | 0.530 | 0.560 | 55% | 2028-03-01 | $7.7k |
| polymarket | Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 US Presidential election? | 0.480 | 0.500 | 49% | 2028-11-06 expected | $6.0k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.255 | kals 0.450 | 17.77c | $35.54 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
| kals 0.220 | poly 0.253 | 2.10c | $2.45 | diverges/medium [office]: Polymarket resolves based on the election wi… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Presidency — https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-o
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
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