Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $5.0k traded · market at 12%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026? | 0.110 | 0.140 | 12% | 2027-01-01 expected | $4.7k |
| kalshi | Who will be arrested in 2026? — José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 0.025 | 0.057 | 4.1% | 2027-01-01 | $347 |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.057 | poly 0.050 | -1.08c | $-0.05 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.057 | poly 0.050 | -1.08c | $-0.05 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.057 | poly 0.050 | -1.08c | $-0.05 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.057 | poly 0.050 | -1.08c | $-0.05 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.057 | poly 0.050 | -1.08c | $-0.05 | edge disappears against the real book |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred — https://kalshi.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com/
- Semafor — https://www.semafor.com/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.