Will Lucy Powell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $2.8k traded · market at 6.2%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Lucy Powell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | 0.050 | 0.075 | 6.2% | 2027-12-31 expected | $2.8k |
| kalshi | Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — Lucy Powell | — | 0.060 | 5.0% | 2028-01-01 | $65 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk
- The Prime Minister's Office — https://gov.uk
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.