2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — Marine Tondelier
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 3 deadlines · $60.1k traded · market at 1.2%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential e | 0.008 | 0.017 | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 expected | $49.8k |
| polymarket | Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.230 | 0.260 | 24% | 2027-04-17 expected | $10.3k |
| kalshi | 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — Marine Tondelier | 0.210 | 0.280 | 24% | 2027-06-30 | $28 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.002 | kals 0.210 | 19.64c | $3.93 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
| poly 0.018 | kals 0.210 | 18.04c | $3.61 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- relevant state Secretary of State or chief election official — https://kalshi.com/
- official state election websites — https://kalshi.com/
- relevant state board of elections — https://kalshi.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Axios — https://www.axios.com
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.