Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $798 traded · market at 4.6%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.023 | 0.069 | 4.6% | 2027-01-01 expected | $748 |
| kalshi | Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Mike Waltz | 0.010 | 0.020 | 1.5% | 2029-01-20 | $50 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.008 | kals 0.010 | 0.13c | $0.05 | unknown/high [none]: unparseable adjudication |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.