Will Netanyahu be arrested? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.7k traded · market at 5.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Netanyahu be arrested? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 | $3.3k |
| kalshi | Will Netanyahu be arrested? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.040 | 0.060 | 5.0% | 2027-01-01 | $1.3k |
| kalshi | Will Netanyahu be arrested? — Before Nov 1, 2026 | 0.010 | 0.020 | 1.5% | 2026-11-01 | $391 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred — https://kalshi.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com/
- Semafor — https://www.semafor.com/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com