Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? — Before Jan 1, 2028

kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $5.8k traded · market at 58%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

source	contract	bid	ask	says	closes	traded
kalshi	Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? — Before Jan 1, 2028	0.560	0.610	58%	2028-01-01	$5.2k
kalshi	Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? — Before Jan 1, 2027	0.140	0.170	16%	2027-01-01	$646

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
Deutsche Welle — https://www.dw.com
Financial Times — https://www.ft.com
France 24 English — https://www.france24.com/en/
The Guardian — https://www.theguardian.com/
NBC News — https://www.nbcnews.com/
The Times of India — https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/
Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
CBS News — https://www.cbsnews.com/
ABC News — https://abcnews.go.com/
The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
NHK World-Japan — https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/
CNN — https://www.cnn.com
The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
BBC News — https://www.bbc.com/
The Globe and Mail — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/
Al Jazeera English — https://www.aljazeera.com/
the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
The South China Morning Post — https://www.scmp.com/
Politico — https://www.politico.com/
Channel NewsAsia — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/us
Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news